Do you have the drive to be in Greentech?

I say: Greentech will become a major force in world economics; it will be a huge industry.

Right now, though, there is a lot of skepticism. People are focusing on the state of the economy, the safety of their investments, the availability of credit and the state of their mortgages.

So, what will it take to come on top of the Greentech wave?

We will need determined entrepreneurs. People who are determined to succeed, who will be able to balance a vision with a solid day to day operation.

Greentech entrepreneurs have to grow (just like the internet entrepreneurs did) into successful businesses people. First of all they have to overcome the image internet entrepreneurs left on their wave. Investors and fellow industry leaders will look at them with suspicion. They have to prove they are capable of running a serious business; they have to prove that money will be managed and put to good use.

Investors also have a challenge. They have to overcome the fear that the recent downfall of the economy left on their heads (and their balance sheets). Investors will also need to brush up on their science knowledge. It’s not the same to analyze a business opportunity of selling shoes online versus a business opportunity of generating energy from solar rays.

Last, but not least, government and banks will have to shift gears as well. Regulation will be the vehicle to bring this industry to life and banks will have to understand the risks involved, and have capital ready to be put to good use.

So, do YOU have the drive to be in Greentech?

I got a lot of comments from “A couple of VERY interesting videos”:

“Shai Agassi and his scalable model for the car 2.0 make diffusion of his innovation plausible. Yes, a good deal of infrastructure still needs to be put in place to make his idea work, but the story he is telling makes sense.
Saul Griffith's idea seems more of a novelty than a future reality”

"I like Agassi's talk, although I disagree strongly with his premise that one can apply Moore's Law of semiconductor electronics evolution to batteries. The world has needed a better battery since the dawn of the previous century, when Baker and other electric cars lost out to steam and ultimately to internal combustion”

“Agreed, although there is room for significant improvement in batteries, certainly from commercializing a range of nano materials, probably 2x-5x increase in power and energy density in next decade, possibly to 10x. I am aware of several projects in commercial testing that can deliver 20%-40% more than current”

“If you plot the evolution of any figure of merit related to batteries (energy density, recharging cycles, etc.), you will notice only a linear improvement over the years, if any. Certainly not a Moore-like exponential growth”

“For the second idea, I think desertec is more realistic
www.desertec.org”

“If demand for electricity increases due to charging car batteries all this would mean is more coal "base-load" powered stations. There are also many inefficiencies in the transmission of energy, conversion and also in use. Plus you have the issues of short range limits. I believe at this point perhaps the idea of natural gas approach may win over in the short term. For sure in the long term the car engine will transform from combustion engine to electricity driven”

“300M vehicles / 8M vehicles per year = 37.5 years. It doesn’t sound short-term to me, and that’s not counting growth, upon which the entire economy is predicated. Further math, 300M vehicles x $50K per vehicle = $15T, plus whatever new infrastructure will be necessary, and in perspective the US GDP is $13.8T”

“One thought I have is that, even with the investment in a strategically placed network of feasible and convenient battery swapping infrastructure, before investing $20,000 in an all electric vehicle, there would have to be a critical mass of electric vehicles on the road for people to believe that it is a stable technology and here to stay. Sort of a chicken and the egg syndrome”

“1. We need to move away from driving everywhere and build societies where we can walk.
2. Private transport must be replaced by communal public transport, which is far more efficient - less traffic, less congestion, less manufacturing and therefore waste”

“It sounds as if Shai Agassi's idea is already out of the gate. India and China are ahead of the curve on Electric Vehicles. There is incredible new technology with electric motors that is going to continue to progress this model forward where you get tremendous torque with less amp draw. Thanks for the videos”

“As for wind turbines on kites, they can work to produce power. Sadly, every NIMBY group in the nation will find problems with them. They are ugly. They kill birds. The cause epileptic fits in fieldmice. If it is visible, some group will fight it until the bitter end. The legal fees alone will prevent it from ever being financially viable”

Until next time: SHALOM!

A couple of VERY interesting videos

Will this two ideas power the world in the near future?

http://www.ted.com/talks/shai_agassi_on_electric_cars.html

http://www.ted.com/talks/saul_griffith_on_kites_as_the_future_of_renewable_energy.html

What do YOU think?

Until next time: SHALOM!

Mia Green Expo & Conference

This past week in Miami I attended the Mia Green Expo & Conference. It was a two day event held at the Miami Beach Convention Center. The event had an exhibit hall with 118 exhibitors and four different parallel Conference sessions, the choices were: (1) Designing and Building greener Americas; (2) How to be Green & Profitable; (3) Green Policies & Benefits; and (4) LEED 2009 Update & Special programs.

 

Here is my analysis of this event:

Is Miami the new capital of the world for Greentech? Well, the short answer is…no. Furthermore this conference was fairly small and a bit disorganized.

In spite of the above I have to admit that in this growing field of Greentech there are always new things to learn and new people to meet. But, most importantly I enjoy attending these conferences because it reminds me of the HUGE OPPORTUNITY we are facing by being part of this group of early adopters of the green wave.

Some day we will look back at these events and say something like this: “remember those days when we were trying to convince the rest of the world that the green wave was coming and that greentech was going to become a huge industry?”

Most of the people in the event were from state or city government, from the various utilities and from academia. The business people (aside from the utilities) were from the construction arena. This is a good example of how Greentech is still flying under the radar.

Many people don’t realize yet the impact Greentech is going to have in our everyday lives and businesses. Just to give you an example: If the US government sticks to their plan and implement the cap and trade law, every business will have to start thinking in terms of carbon emissions. This means that the corner ice cream shop will have to pay or compensate for the carbon emissions of their ice cream machines (and their blenders, and their delivery truck, and their a/c)! The greentech world will have a demand never seen before, instead of companies pushing for their greentech products, people will demand greentech applications in their businesses, their transport and their homes.

Here are some comments from last week’s IT’S ALL GOOD... GOOD NEWS!:

“We are all happy you said it.
If you remember how it started, we can say now: Bad times R.I.P.”

“I concur. I am beginning to see an improvement in the hiring market. And green jobs are going to lead the way”

“Thanks... Most of us need this kind of news.
Everything but the global Climate Change which goes beyond the Koyoto Protocol is fairly good news.. All that will do is boost my 100% Carbon Tax exempt product automobile mfg company sales”

“Some interesting thoughts here. however the incentives currently on offer for 'green' technologies are skewed towards what the lobbyists want rather than what is practical and effective technology. For my proof I offer wind power which is probably the most unreliable erratic supply available and undeserving (in my opinion) of the massive subsidies it is getting in the UK. I would be more interested if power from waste was getting the same level of subsidy and planning application help. The nimby effect (not in my back yard) prevents good waste to energy gasifiers and combusters from getting off the ground in the UK and this just has to change-recovers energy from waste and reduces landfill - both required for our sustainability. For the UK in situ coal gasification with CO2 capture is a way to supply all of our gas and chemical industry supplies for 200 years plus! By producing synthesis gas we can revert all households to towns gas as we knew it and use syngas to make ammonia and hence fertiliser and plastics - basically replace the petro industry with gasification products as SASOL”

“I certainly hope so. These however are just a few of the green giants out there. If the rest of the economy picks up on their regular way of doing business again, we might be back in the financial slumps before you know it”

“1. the last depression-recovery was based on investment in military and road building. this one is green.
2. it smells like the internet age in c.1994
3. the market is not natural. nice feelings around social conscience did not cut it. economic drivers are being created by government. as such, it is so disruptive! And neat stuff can be done until the old fashioned laws of supply and demand
.
So I do not see there being a return to a premature slump as we have started the next cycle. between now and then I believe we will see another massive transfer of wealth from investors to consultants and marketeers via entrepreneurs as we saw in late 1990's. As the zietgiest is based on long term >25 years for a big return, I hope we are seeing another long growth run; then again energy deficits may derail us”

Until next time: SHALOM!